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Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Andrijevic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Tabea Lissner

    (Climate Analytics)

  • Raya Muttarak

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    University of Bologna)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Graz University of Technology)

  • Emily Theokritoff

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Adelle Thomas

    (Climate Analytics
    University of the Bahamas)

  • Nicole Maanen

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Edward Byers

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Global models that assess the impacts of climate change and policy options to reduce them most often do not elaborately represent adaptation. When they do, they rarely account for heterogeneity in societies’ adaptive capacities and their temporal dynamics. Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models. A large set of indicators spanning different socioeconomic dimensions can be used to assess adaptive capacity and deliver adaptation-relevant, scenario-resolved information that is crucial for more realistic assessment of whether and how climate risks can be reduced by adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Andrijevic & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tabea Lissner & Raya Muttarak & Keywan Riahi & Emily Theokritoff & Adelle Thomas & Nicole Maanen & Edward Byers, 2023. "Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 778-787, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01725-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivia Serdeczny & Marina Andrijevic & Claire Fyson & Tabea Lissner & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Emily Theokritoff & Adelle Thomas, 2024. "Climatic risks to adaptive capacity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, January.

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