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Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals

Author

Listed:
  • Kirsten Zickfeld

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Alexander J. MacIsaac

    (Simon Fraser University
    St. Francis Xavier University)

  • Josep G. Canadell

    (CSIRO Environment)

  • Sabine Fuss

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Robert B. Jackson

    (Stanford University)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Annalea Lohila

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute
    University of Helsinki)

  • H. Damon Matthews

    (Concordia University)

  • Glen P. Peters

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Sönke Zaehle

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

Abstract

Commitments to net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets now cover 88% of countries’ emissions. Underlying the accounting behind net-zero frameworks is the assumption that emissions can be balanced with removals such that their net climate effect is zero. However, when considering the full climate impacts of CO2 emissions and removals, there are reasons to expect that the two are not equivalent in terms of their climate outcomes. We identify potential contributors to non-equivalence, including impermanence, biogeophysical and non-CO2 GHG effects, and argue that these non-equivalencies need to be accounted for to achieve climate goals. Given key uncertainties about the full climate impact of CO2 removal, it is prudent to prioritize emission reductions over removals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten Zickfeld & Alexander J. MacIsaac & Josep G. Canadell & Sabine Fuss & Robert B. Jackson & Chris D. Jones & Annalea Lohila & H. Damon Matthews & Glen P. Peters & Joeri Rogelj & Sönke Zaehle, 2023. "Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(12), pages 1298-1305, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01862-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7
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