IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v13y2023i10d10.1038_s41558-023-01801-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Wang

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Weiyi Sun

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Chunhan Jin

    (Xinjiang University)

  • Xiao Luo

    (University of Hawaii
    University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Young-Min Yang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Tim Li

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Baoqiang Xiang

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory)

  • Mark A. Cane

    (Columbia University)

  • Feifei Jin

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Fei Liu

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Jian Liu

    (Nanjing Normal University)

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Wang & Weiyi Sun & Chunhan Jin & Xiao Luo & Young-Min Yang & Tim Li & Baoqiang Xiang & Michael J. McPhaden & Mark A. Cane & Feifei Jin & Fei Liu & Jian Liu, 2023. "Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(10), pages 1075-1081, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01801-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01801-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.