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Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Wengel

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Sun-Seon Lee

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Malte F. Stuecker

    (University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Jung-Eun Chu

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Fabian Schloesser

    (University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa)

Abstract

The current generation of climate models does not properly resolve oceanic mesoscale processes in tropical oceans, such as tropical instability waves. The associated deficit in explicit vertical and lateral heat exchange can further contribute to large-scale equatorial temperature biases, which in turn impact the representation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming. Here, using a mesoscale-resolving global climate model with an improved representation of tropical climate, we show that a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 causes a robust weakening of future simulated ENSO sea surface temperature variability. This sensitivity is caused mainly by stronger latent heat flux damping and weaker advective feedbacks. Stratification-induced weakening of tropical instability wave activity and the corresponding growth of ENSO instability partly offset the effect of other negative dynamical feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that previous lower-resolution greenhouse warming projections did not adequately simulate important ENSO-relevant ocean mesoscale processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Wengel & Sun-Seon Lee & Malte F. Stuecker & Axel Timmermann & Jung-Eun Chu & Fabian Schloesser, 2021. "Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 758-765, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01132-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01132-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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