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Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • C. Wade Ross

    (New Mexico State University
    Tall Timbers Research Station)

  • Niall P. Hanan

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Lara Prihodko

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Julius Anchang

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Wenjie Ji

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Qiuyan Yu

    (New Mexico State University)

Abstract

Africa’s ecosystems have an important role in global carbon dynamics, yet consensus is lacking regarding the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and the potential impacts to carbon storage in response to changes in climate, land use and other Anthropocene risks. In this study, we explore the socioenvironmental conditions that have shaped the contemporary distribution of woody vegetation across sub-Saharan Africa and evaluate ecosystem response to multiple scenarios of climate change, anthropogenic pressures and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest climate change will have a small but negative effect on above-ground woody biomass at the continental scale, and the compounding effects of population growth, increasing human pressures and socioclimatic-driven changes in fire behaviour further exacerbate climate-driven trends. Relatively modest continental-scale trends obscure much larger regional perturbations, with climatic and anthropogenic factors leading to increased carbon storage potential in East Africa, offset by large deficits in West, Central and Southern Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Wade Ross & Niall P. Hanan & Lara Prihodko & Julius Anchang & Wenjie Ji & Qiuyan Yu, 2021. "Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 449-455, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01034-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01034-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Reiner & Martin Brandt & Xiaoye Tong & David Skole & Ankit Kariryaa & Philippe Ciais & Andrew Davies & Pierre Hiernaux & Jérôme Chave & Maurice Mugabowindekwe & Christian Igel & Stefan Oehmcke, 2023. "More than one quarter of Africa’s tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as forest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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