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Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Falko Ueckerdt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Christian Bauer

    (Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Alois Dirnaichner

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Jordan Everall

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Universität Graz)

  • Romain Sacchi

    (Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Technische Universität Berlin)

Abstract

E-fuels promise to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity without the demand-side transformations required for a direct electrification. However, e-fuels’ versatility is counterbalanced by their fragile climate effectiveness, high costs and uncertain availability. E-fuel mitigation costs are €800–1,200 per tCO2. Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to €20–270 per tCO2 until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels will become cheap and abundant early enough. Neglecting demand-side transformations threatens to lock in a fossil-fuel dependency if e-fuels fall short of expectations. Sensible climate policy supports e-fuel deployment while hedging against the risk of their unavailability at large scale. Policies should be guided by a ‘merit order of end uses’ that prioritizes hydrogen and e-fuels for sectors that are inaccessible to direct electrification.

Suggested Citation

  • Falko Ueckerdt & Christian Bauer & Alois Dirnaichner & Jordan Everall & Romain Sacchi & Gunnar Luderer, 2021. "Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 384-393, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01032-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7
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