IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v11y2021i1d10.1038_s41558-020-00933-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Jean-Louis Dufresne

    (Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique)

  • Yu Kosaka

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Thorsten Mauritsen

    (Stockholm University)

  • Hiroaki Tatebe

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Abstract

The equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, known to be a pacemaker of global warming, has strengthened since the mid-twentieth century. However, the cause is controversial because a majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest weakening of the zonal SST gradient from the past to the future. Reconciling this discrepancy is important for the climate change attribution and climate sensitivity assessment. Here we use the CMIP5 ensemble and large ensemble simulations by four climate models to show that the intensifying SST gradient observed during 1951–2010 could arise from internal climate variability. Models and members that simulate historical strengthening of the SST gradient commonly exhibit reversed future trends. Using these models as a constraint, the rate of global-mean temperature rise is amplified by 9–30%, with higher values occurring in low-emission scenarios, because internal variability has a greater impact when the externally forced response is smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Watanabe & Jean-Louis Dufresne & Yu Kosaka & Thorsten Mauritsen & Hiroaki Tatebe, 2021. "Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 33-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00933-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00933-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Shuo Fu & Shineng Hu & Xiao-Tong Zheng & Kay McMonigal & Sarah Larson & Yiqun Tian, 2024. "Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00933-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.