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Why marginal CO 2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy

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  • Stephen P. Holland

    (a Department of Economics, Bryan School of Business and Economics, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, NC 27402-6170;; b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398;)

  • Matthew J. Kotchen

    (b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398;; c School for the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511;)

  • Erin T. Mansur

    (b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398;; d Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755-3514;)

  • Andrew J. Yates

    (e Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599)

Abstract

Marginal emissions of CO 2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating many climate policies. We provide estimates of marginal CO 2 emissions for electricity use in the United States that vary by region, hour of day, and year to year. Despite a decrease in average emissions over the last decade, marginal emissions have increased. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration’s target of having electric vehicles make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector far more substantial than those over the last decade, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P. Holland & Matthew J. Kotchen & Erin T. Mansur & Andrew J. Yates, 2022. "Why marginal CO 2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(8), pages 2116632119-, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:119:y:2022:p:e2116632119
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