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Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

Author

Listed:
  • Tse Yang Lim

    (a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Erin J. Stringfellow

    (c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;)

  • Celia A. Stafford

    (c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;; d Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02163;)

  • Catherine DiGennaro

    (c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;)

  • Jack B. Homer

    (a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; e Homer Consulting, Barrytown, NY 12507;)

  • Wayne Wakeland

    (f Systems Science Program, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201;)

  • Sara L. Eggers

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Reza Kazemi

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Lukas Glos

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Emily G. Ewing

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Calvin B. Bannister

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Keith Humphreys

    (g Veterans Affairs Health Services Research Center, Palo Alto, CA 94304;; h Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305)

  • Douglas C. Throckmorton

    (b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;)

  • Mohammad S. Jalali

    (a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;)

Abstract

The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tse Yang Lim & Erin J. Stringfellow & Celia A. Stafford & Catherine DiGennaro & Jack B. Homer & Wayne Wakeland & Sara L. Eggers & Reza Kazemi & Lukas Glos & Emily G. Ewing & Calvin B. Bannister & Keit, 2022. "Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(23), pages 2115714119-, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:119:y:2022:p:e2115714119
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