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Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza among primary school students in Matsumoto city, Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Akira Endo

    (a Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; b The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; c The Alan Turing Institute, London, NW1 2DB, United Kingdom;; d School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan;; e Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, 102-0083, Japan;)

  • Mitsuo Uchida

    (f Graduate School of Medicine, Gunma University, Gunma, 371-8511, Japan;)

  • Naoki Hayashi

    (g Simulation & Mining Division, NTT DATA Mathematical Systems Inc., Tokyo, 160-0016, Japan;; h Department of Mathematical and Computing Science, School of Computing, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, 152-8552, Japan;)

  • Yang Liu

    (a Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; b The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;)

  • Katherine E. Atkins

    (a Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; b The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; i Centre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4UX, United Kingdom)

  • Adam J. Kucharski

    (a Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; b The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;)

  • Sebastian Funk

    (a Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;; b The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;)

Abstract

Empirical evidence on detailed transmission patterns of influenza among students within and between classes and grades and how they are shaped by school population structure (e.g., class and school sizes) has been limited to date. We analyzed a detailed dataset of seasonal influenza incidence in 29 primary schools in Japan and found that the reproduction number at school did not show any clear association with the size or the number of classes. Our findings suggest that the interventions that only focus on reducing the number of students in class at any moment in time (e.g., reduced class sizes and staggered attendance) may not be as effective as measures that aim to reduce within-class risk (e.g., mask-wearing and vaccines).

Suggested Citation

  • Akira Endo & Mitsuo Uchida & Naoki Hayashi & Yang Liu & Katherine E. Atkins & Adam J. Kucharski & Sebastian Funk, 2021. "Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza among primary school students in Matsumoto city, Japan," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(46), pages 2112605118-, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2112605118
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