IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/actaun_2016064062133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Tereza Slováčková

    (Department of Marketing and Trade, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Naďa Birčiaková

    (Department of Marketing and Trade, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Jana Stávková

    (Department of Marketing and Trade, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol), and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box-Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Tereza Slováčková & Naďa Birčiaková & Jana Stávková, 2016. "Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2133-2140.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064062133
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201664062133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664062133.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664062133.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/actaun201664062133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064062133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mendelu.cz/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.