Three-faced Janus. Guaranteed Minimum Income: Universal Basic Income, Unemployment Benefit or an Incentive to Black Market Labour?

This article aims to start studying the Guaranteed Minimum Income, the policy measure used by the so-called «yellow-green» government as a flag, and which has so much monopolized the political debate over the last two years in Italy. Our aim is to start defining the structure and size of such policy, given that to date the guaranteed minimum income cannot be clearly and unambiguously described. By studying the correlation between guaranteed minimum income applications and black market labour in Italy, through an original index of estimates of black economy, the article shows how the implementation of guaranteed minimum wage has ambiguous consequences. In particular, for such a policy, what most puzzles and at least is ambiguous and certainly raises some doubts, is the reference to really high sanctions for citizens who do not reach the poverty line, or for those who implement moral hazard behaviours that allow them to overcome such line, but hardly for a significant amount of money and in any case escaping relative poverty. In short, the ambiguous nature of this provision seems to have repercussions on all fronts and on the results of this preliminary analysis, which allows us to shed light only partially on the effects.