Seasonality of Tourism Services Demand: An Econometric Analysis
AbstractThe majority of tourism destinations appears to be characterized by a remarkable degree of seasonality of demand that causes several problems to local firms and administrations, as it hampers the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities and of the job market. The wide array of issues related to seasonality of demand for tourism destinations has thus stimulated economic research. This paper briefly discusses the essential aspects of seasonality of tourism services demand and describes the main characteristics of the monthly tourist nights in the Province of Lecce, between January 1988 and December 2008. In addition, the seasonality of tourism services in this area is analyzed from an econometric point of view. Two different approaches are followed. The first one consists in the estimation of a SARIMA model based on the original data. The second one is based on seasonal adjustment procedures (TRAMO-SEATS and X12-ARIMA) that eliminate the seasonal component from the original time series. The adjusted data are fitted with ARIMA models. Finally, the forecasting achieved from the estimated models are compared in order to understand the impact of seasonality on the ability to forecast the future pattern of tourism demand.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Società editrice il Mulino in its journal Economia dei Servizi.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
tourism; seasonality; seasonal adjustment; forecasting; unit roots;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.