The Status of Italian Broadband: Statistics, Diffusion Models and Policy Implications

Despite the relevance of broadband, empirical evidence on its status is scattered and inadequate,especially for Italy; this also affects the debate on ngn (Next Generation Networks).We collect and systematize a large set of data and statistics, and we propose new original comparativeindicators. This is followed by a diffusion analysis, aimed at studying the morphologyof fixed broadband subscriptions in a set of eu and oecd countries; the logistic and Gompertzmodels are estimated. A few noticeable findings stand out: 1) Italian digital divide comes to beheavily underestimated by current statistics and studies; 2) the diffusion path of Italian fixedbroadband is peculiar, and shows an early inflection point and a growing inertia, since theperiod 2004-5; 3) its «prospective market potential» appears to be the lowest among the referenceeu countries; 4) data on fixed broadband coverage and quality are even messier; on overall,they point to severe infrastructural, technical and commercial shortcomings, which are usuallyunderstated or even neglected by existing literature; instead, they might explain a sizable share of the recent subscriptions inertia - especially for the business segment. This status caneven dampen the deployment and take-off of the most promising types of ngn, especiallywhen considering the recent parallel boom of mobile broadband. Finally, after more than adecade of absence, a clear need for Government intervention emerges.