The reversal of the pension reform 1998 from a short-term perspective
AbstractThe private pension pillar established in 1998 has generated equally important short-, medium- and long-term effects. This article addresses the short- and medium-term time horizons, which differ from one another. In the short term, the government lost contribution revenues, while its pension expenditures did not decrease. However, since this shortfall in state revenues did not influence the consumption and savings decisions of households, in this analysis the short-term indicators of fiscal impact on demand disregard the impact of lost revenues. In the medium term, however, the rechanneling of contributions increased public debt and household savings. Consequently, similarly to official statistics, our household indicators and our medium-term fiscal indicator (augmented SNA deficit) take into account the effect of lost revenues. As the vast majority of members returned to the state pension pillar in 2011, for the purposes of our analysis, we could well assume that the private pension pillar never existed. Accordingly, the difference between our medium-term fiscal indicator and the short-term indicator disappears. As a result, we have changed our household indicators retroactively in such a way as if the contributions and the returns they yielded had always belonged to the state. This was necessary because the official statistics do not spread this amount over time, but account for it in full for 2011 as a capital transfer between households and the general government, which renders evaluation of the developments extremely difficult.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its journal MNB Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
pension reform; savings; pension funds; statistical correction; net lending; deficit.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
- H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maja Bajcsy).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.