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An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Zhi-Cheng Voon

    (School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia)

  • Chee-Wooi Hooy

    (School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia)

  • Chin-Hong Puah

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak)

Abstract

Malaysia’s property market has been going through a difficult phase as the supply of property stocks are excessive with the demand unable to catch up, and hence, many unsold units remaining on the market. The primary aim of this paper is to develop an index-based housing affordability indicator known as the housing affordability leading index (HALI), which is based on the indicator compilation approach founded by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The time-varying Markov switching (TVMS) model is then employed to assess the transition probabilities of the constructed housing affordability indicator. The transition probabilities estimate the prospects of the housing affordability condition and how long it will stay in that particular condition before having any major turnover. As the data employed was monthly data from year 2000 to year 2015, the constructed HALI successfully reflects the prior movements of the non-index housing affordability indicator price to income ratios (PIR). The empirical results show that the HALI has an average leading period of 9.5 months when taking the PIR as a benchmark of coincidence indicator for housing affordability movement.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-Cheng Voon & Chee-Wooi Hooy & Chin-Hong Puah, 2020. "An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia," Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Malaya & Malaysian Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 133-145, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mjr:journl:v:57:y:2020:i:1:p:133-145
    DOI: 10.22452/MJES.vol57no1.7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing affordability; housing policy; house prices; leading indicator; Markov regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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