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Some Methodological Questions of the Preparation of Forecasts

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  • Lajos Besenyei

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    (University of Miskolc)

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    Abstract

    The direct reason of the development and the increase of the demand for prediction is to look for in the acceleration of social-economic development. At the end of the 19th century, and at the beginning of the 20th century have appeared those processes in the United States of America which changed basically the former, relatively calm market situation. The primary condition of making the future processes probable and possible is the connecting mode of the past-present-future, the existence or lack of balance, the continuous or balk nature of processes. If the given phenomena has precedents and those are living further in the past in any form, the mathematical-statistical so called hard methods get wide possibilities. But in those cases, when in lack of precedents a totally new developing period begins, the intuitive, professional so called soft methods come to the fore. The lecture analyses the theoretical and methodical questions connected to the above with the purpose to improve the quality and goodness of the practical applications of predictions.

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    File URL: http://tmp.gtk.uni-miskolc.hu/volumes/2002/01/TMP_2002_01_01.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc in its journal Theory Methodology Practice (TMP).

    Volume (Year): 1 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 01 ()
    Pages: 3-8

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    Handle: RePEc:mic:tmpjrn:v:1:y:2002:i:01:p:3-8

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