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Ambiguity and Partisan Business Cycles

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  • Anna Maffioletti
  • Michele Santoni

Abstract

We introduce ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) into a stripped-down version of Alesina's (1987) partisan model of the business cycle. We show that, if the private sector's subjective expectations of future events are ambiguous, there is the possibility of a political business cycle, even when the parties running for the election have similar preferences for inflation and unemployment. In particular, if inflation is perceived as a loss, then the larger the fraction of the population that is ambiguity-prone (-averse), the larger is the postelection boom (slump), with unemployment then returning back to its natural level. We also show that, for given parties preferences, ambiguity proneness (aversion) implies smaller (larger) fluctuations in the unemployment around its natural level when the right-wing party wins the elections. (Keywords: Ambiguity, Ellsberg's paradox, Partisan theory of the business cycle, Unemployment)

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Maffioletti & Michele Santoni, 2002. "Ambiguity and Partisan Business Cycles," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 59(3), pages 387-406, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(2002/200308)59:3_387:aapbc_2.0.tx_2-z
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity; ellsberg's paradox; partisan theory of the business cycle; unemployment);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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