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Long-Run Fiscal Consequences of Refugee Migration - The Case of Austria

Author

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  • Johannes Holler
  • Philip Schuster

Abstract

We use a rich numerical OLG model of Auerbach-Kotlikoff type to simulate the long-run effects of refugee migration starting in 2015 for a country with an aging society and a generous welfare system, namely Austria. The respective refugee cohorts are on average younger, less educated, and less productive than both natives and the average migrant. The net fiscal contribution results from two opposing effects: a positive demographic effect which is counteracted by worse labor market outcomes. We robustly find that public debt is higher throughout the simulation horizon 2015-2060 than in the baseline. We further analyze the group-specific welfare consequences resulting from differentiated wage effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Holler & Philip Schuster, 2020. "Long-Run Fiscal Consequences of Refugee Migration - The Case of Austria," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 76(3), pages 266-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:doi:10.1628/fa-2020-0009
    DOI: 10.1628/fa-2020-0009
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers [Refugees without Assistance: English-language Attainment and Economic Outcomes in the Early," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugee migration; fiscal effects; overlapping-generations model; general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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