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Expectations, Behavior, and Stock Market Volatility

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  • Yong Wang
  • Hanzhong Deng

Abstract

Stock market volatility is caused by investors’ expectations and behavior. To study the implication relationship, on the one hand, we present an investor’s expectation-forming and decision-making model to summarize the key features of individual behavior. We think the individual expectation is determined mainly by the number of differences between positive signals and negative signals in the information flow. The behavior is determined by both the expectations of investors around him (her) and the expected returns from a potential action. On the other hand, we simulate an investor community to verify if the model is able to replicate the related stylized facts. Mainly, three conclusions are drawn from the simulation: (1) A relationship of asymmetrical conditional dependence exists between expectation consistency and behavior consistency. (2) Market volatility is caused mainly by the difference between expectation consistency and behavior consistency. As the density of connections in the investor community network increases, the difference between them grows. (3) Influential investors have profound impacts on the formation of normal investors’ expectations and behavior. Thus influential investors play an important role in determining the degree of market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Wang & Hanzhong Deng, 2018. "Expectations, Behavior, and Stock Market Volatility," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(14), pages 3235-3255, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:14:p:3235-3255
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1498331
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    Cited by:

    1. Yadav Devi Prasad Behera & Sudhansu Sekhar Nanda & Shibani Sharma & Tushar Ranjan Sahoo, 2022. "Examining Risk Absorption Capacity as a Mediating Factor in the Relationship between Cognition and Neuroplasticity in Investors in Investment Decision Making," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Kanzari, Dalel & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2023. "Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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