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Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with the Eurozone and the United States: What Has Changed Since 2001?

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  • Hüseyin Akkoyun
  • Bahar Şen-Doğan
  • Mahmut Günay

Abstract

Using wavelet methodology, we make a detailed spectral analysis of the business cycle synchronization of the Turkish economy with the eurozone and the United States. We take into account the dramatic change in the main economic indicators in the Turkish economy after the 2001 financial crisis. We find that the correlation of Turkish cycles with the cycles of the eurozone and the United States increased substantially after 2001. Moreover, the correlation of the Turkish cycles with the U.S. cycles is not lower than that with the euro cycles after 2001. Accordingly, analyzing the effect of international developments should not be confined to the trade channel. We submit that capital flows offer a reasonable explanation for the high correlation with the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüseyin Akkoyun & Bahar Şen-Doğan & Mahmut Günay, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with the Eurozone and the United States: What Has Changed Since 2001?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 26-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:4:p:26-41
    DOI: 10.2753/REE1540-496X500402
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    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Testing the dependency theory on small island economies: The case of Cyprus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-11.
    3. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.

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