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Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chengsi Zhang
  • Butan Zhang
  • Zhe Lu
  • Yasutomo Murasawa

Abstract

Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors compare the statistical nature and potential forecasting effects of the resulting multivariate gap measure on monetary policy with those of the output gap measures based on univariate models. The empirical results show that only the measure based on the multivariate system significantly predicts monetary policy, which indicates that the output gap estimated by the multivariate system contains more information than the traditional measures for macroeconomic policy adjustments do.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang & Butan Zhang & Zhe Lu & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 119-131, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:s4:p:119-131
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wojciech Maliszewski & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2015. "China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?," IMF Working Papers 2015/113, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    3. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    4. Mattesini, Fabrizio & Nosal, Ed, 2016. "Liquidity and asset prices in a monetary model with OTC asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 187-217.

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