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Productivity, Demand, and Regulated Price Effects Revisited: An Analysis of the Real Bilateral Exchange Rates of Four New EU Member States

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  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Cezary Wojcik

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of internal price ratios and bilateral real exchange rates of a group of four new EU member states-Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Slovenia. We employ a dynamic ordinary least squares panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the internal and external exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply- and demand-side effects are important, though supply-side effects dominate. The paper also examines the role that administrated or regulated prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in real exchange rate dynamics. We show that administrated prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wojcik, 2008. "Productivity, Demand, and Regulated Price Effects Revisited: An Analysis of the Real Bilateral Exchange Rates of Four New EU Member States," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 48-65, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:44:y:2008:i:3:p:48-65
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    2. Ahmed Derbali, 2021. "The misalignment of real effective exchange rate: Evidence from Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 04-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2011. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Analysis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 49-58.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "The nonlinear ARDL approach and productivity bias hypothesis: Evidence from 68 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 80-89.
    5. Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2015. "PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 358-366.
    6. Konopczak, Karolina & Welfe, Aleksander, 2017. "Convergence-driven inflation and the channels of its absorption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1019-1034.

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