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Bond Premium in Turkey : Inflation Risk or Default Risk?

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Author Info
ERDEM BASÇI
MEHMET FATIH EKINCI

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Abstract

In this paper we examine the difference between T-bill returns and common stock returns in Turkey. We observe that there is a bond premium in Turkey unlike the equity premia in developed countries. As an attempt to explain this surprising observation, we incorporate inflation risk and default risk to the Mehra and Presscott (1985) dynamic asset-pricing model. Calibration with reasonable parameter values indicates that the inflation risk alone is not sufficient to explain the observed bond premium. However, by allowing for the presence of a perceived default probability, we can explain the observed bond premium on Turkish T-bills over Turkish common stocks.

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File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=GTAMWDV1HVXAA2MV
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Publisher Info
Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 41 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 25-40
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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:41:y:2005:i:2:p:25-40

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

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Related research
Keywords: asset pricing; bond premium; default risk; equity-premium puzzle; inflation risk;

Cited by:
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  1. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-27.


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