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Political Business Cycles in the Parliamentary Systems : Evidence from Turkey

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  • FUNDA TELATAR

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the existence of political business cycles in Turkey for the 1986-97 period. Turkey presents an interesting case, with high and chronic inflation problems continuing since the mid-1970s. Political surfing and manipulative hypotheses about the behavior of the governments in a parliamentary system are tested by using probit and logit estimation procedures that include the election timing as an endogenous variable. We found that the governments manipulated the economy to increase their chances to be reelected through money supply and government expenditures during the sample period, causing the stabilization programs to loose their credibility and thus the inflation problem to continue.

Suggested Citation

  • Funda Telatar, 2003. "Political Business Cycles in the Parliamentary Systems : Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 24-39, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:39:y:2003:i:4:p:24-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.

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