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New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy

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  • Zuzana Košťálová
  • Eva Horvátová
  • Štefan Lyócsa
  • Peter Gernát

Abstract

In developed economies, macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and price indices tend to predict new credit expansion. We explore whether business and consumer surveys complement traditional macroeconomic variables in predicting new household and corporate loans in the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Using monthly data for Slovakia, starting in 2009 and ending in 2019, we use Bayesian model averaging to examine 102 potential credit drivers. Our results show that, with the exception of interest rates and unemployment, traditional macroeconomic variables do not seem to drive credit market development. Instead, survey-based perceptions, calendar effects and policy uncertainty show relevant predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Košťálová & Eva Horvátová & Štefan Lyócsa & Peter Gernát, 2022. "New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(1), pages 79-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:60:y:2022:i:1:p:79-112
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084
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