Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy
AbstractSeveral researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility. But a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find that inflation and output have become more predictable, though the results for output are somewhat mixed. The reductions in unpredictability (if any) are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility. Associated with this, the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University No claim to original US government works.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (09)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2012.
"Indeterminacy and Forecastability,"
CAMA Working Papers
2012-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2011. "Indeterminacy and forecastability," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sean Langcake & Tim Robinson, 2013. "An Empirical BVAR-DSGE Model of the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013.
"Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?,"
Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order
79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Jon D. Samuels & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2013. "Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination," Working Papers 13-11, Bank of Canada.
- Peter Tulip & Stephanie Wallace, 2012. "Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.