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Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models

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Author Info
Krainer, John
Lopez, Jose A

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Abstract

We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to U.S. bank supervisors for assessing the condition of domestic bank holding companies. We develop a model of supervisory ratings that combines supervisory and equity market information. We find that the model's forecasts anticipate supervisory rating changes by up to four quarters. Relative to simply using supervisory variables, the inclusion of equity market variables in the model does not improve forecast accuracy. However, we argue that equity market information should still be useful for forecasting supervisory ratings and should be incorporated into supervisory monitoring models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1043-67
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:36:y:2004:i:6:p:1043-67

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Linda Allen & Julapa Jagtiani & James Moser, 2001. "Further Evidence on the Information Content of Bank Examination Ratings: A Study of BHC-to-FHC Conversion Applications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 213-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
  15. Gary H. Stern, 2001. "Taking market data seriously," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sep, pages 8-10.
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    Other versions:
  18. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  20. Beverly J. Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Klaus Düllmann & Agnieszka Sosinska, 2007. "Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 269-292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2003. "Subordinated debt and prompt corrective regulatory action," Working Paper Series WP-03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2006. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Spiegel, Mark M. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2004. "Determinants of Voluntary Bank Disclosure: Evidence from Japanese Shinkin Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, . "Market and Supervisory Information: Some Evidence from Italian Banks," Discussion Papers 04/04, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  6. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 135-175. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward S. Prescott, 2006. "Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices," Working Paper 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  9. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, 2005. "The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 139-162, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Clemens J.M. Kool, 2007. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  14. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Working Paper 2001-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2003. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?," Working Papers 2003-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  17. John R. Hall & Thomas B. King & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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