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Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models

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  • Krainer, John
  • Lopez, Jose A

Abstract

We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to U.S. bank supervisors for assessing the condition of domestic bank holding companies. We develop a model of supervisory ratings that combines supervisory and equity market information. We find that the model's forecasts anticipate supervisory rating changes by up to four quarters. Relative to simply using supervisory variables, the inclusion of equity market variables in the model does not improve forecast accuracy. However, we argue that equity market information should still be useful for forecasting supervisory ratings and should be incorporated into supervisory monitoring models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1043-67
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:36:y:2004:i:6:p:1043-67

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Robert Roslyn) or (Christopher F. Baum).

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
  2. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier.
  3. Linda Allen & Julapa Jagtiani & James Moser, 2001. "Further Evidence on the Information Content of Bank Examination Ratings: A Study of BHC-to-FHC Conversion Applications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 213-232, October.
  4. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-28, February.
  6. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, M., 2004. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 419-460, March.
  7. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  8. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
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  11. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 1998. "Credit Risk and Risk Neutral Default Probabilities: Information About Migrations and Defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7dm2d31p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  12. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
  13. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
  14. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
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  16. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
  17. repec:cdl:anderf:3343 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Gary H. Stern, 2001. "Taking market data seriously," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sep, pages 8-10.
  19. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Düllmann & Agnieszka Sosinska, 2007. "Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 269-292, September.
  2. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2003. "Subordinated debt and prompt corrective regulatory action," Working Paper Series WP-03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
  4. Urs W. Birchler & Matteo Facchinetti, 2006. "Can bank supervisors rely on market data? A critical assessment from a Swiss perspective," Working Papers 2006-08, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2006. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus," CESifo Working Paper Series 1647, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Wall, Larry D., 2002. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 989-1009, May.
  8. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, 2005. "The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 139-162, April.
  9. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, . "Market and Supervisory Information: Some Evidence from Italian Banks," Discussion Papers 04/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
  11. Clemens J.M. Kool, 2007. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  12. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2003. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?," Working Papers 2003-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45.
  14. John R. Hall & Thomas B. King & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Knaup, M & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Discussion Paper 2009-35 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward S. Prescott, 2006. "Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices," Working Paper 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  17. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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