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Der Rückgang konjunktureller Schwankungen in Deutschland: Bessere Geldpolitik oder nur Glück gehabt?

Author

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  • Buch Claudia M.
  • Pierdzioch Christian

    (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Düsternbrooker Weg 120, D – 24105 Kiel)

  • Döpke Jörg

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, D – 60006 Frankfurt am Main)

Abstract

It is often argued that the globalisation of the world economy might have contributed to an increased instability of real economic activity, in particular for small open economies. At the same time, there is evidence that the volatility of real economic activity might in fact have been dampened. This contribution addresses the question whether the volatility of GDP in Germany has changed and, if so, which factors could be responsible for this. We argue that a more successful monetary policy has - to some extent - contributed to this development. However, the lion’s share of the volatility decline is likely to come from other factors like smaller exogenous shocks, technological progress, and the effect of globalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Buch Claudia M. & Pierdzioch Christian & Döpke Jörg, 2004. "Der Rückgang konjunktureller Schwankungen in Deutschland: Bessere Geldpolitik oder nur Glück gehabt?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 53(1), pages 81-94, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:53:y:2004:i:1:p:81-94:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2004-0105
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