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Trends and Future Scenarios of Forestry and Other Land Uses Employment in Indonesia: a Modeling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Herry Purnomo

    (Faculty of Forestry, Bogor Agricultural University, and Researcher, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR))

Abstract

Environmental sustainability and poverty are some of the most important targets in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. However, the relationship between employment and forestry development is unclear, especially when it comes to illegal logging. This study aims to generate projections for forestry and other land use in Indonesia and develop policy scenarios to decrease unemployment and improve environmental sustainability by examining natural forests, logging, forest plantations, wood-based industries and trade. The study observes the components of natural forest, logging, forest plantation, wood-based industries and trade. The study uses systems dynamic to implement a model of interaction among forest structure industries, actors and their institutions. The study finds that the current practice of forest management will experience growth in employment before it collapses, starting with Riau followed by East Kalimantan and Papua. Massive forest planting will benefit deforested land, but may jeopardize employment and livelihood in community land. Land tenure reform can boost the employment to meet the overall government target on unemployment level of 5.11% in year 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Herry Purnomo, 2006. "Trends and Future Scenarios of Forestry and Other Land Uses Employment in Indonesia: a Modeling Approach," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 54, pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:200601
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; deforestation; model; policy scenario; small-scale forestry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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