Análisis de cambio de régimen en series de tiempo no lineales utilizando modelos TAR
AbstractIn some situations, theoreticians recommend a given predictive model for a series of financial time. However, some inappropriate behaviors in given series make such a model unsuitable. One of the reasons for this can be the non-linearity of those behaviors. A proposed model to treat these series is the TAR model (threshold autoregressive). TAR models are determined by a variable called threshold for which it mainly results to be a temporal nonlinear model. A TAR model expresses itself as a temporal series, with a lagged as a threshold variable, where d is an entire positive called retard threshold. In practice, the threshold variable is unknown, due to which an important question is how to determine it; an answer to this question is given in this paper. TAR models are illustrated by modeling Spain's Gross Domestic Product.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía in its journal LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA.
Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 61 (Julio-Diciembre)
Postal: Lecturas de Economía, Departamento de Economía, Calle 67, 53-108, Medellin 050010, Colombia.
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
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