International trade transmission channel of a local crisis: a simple model
AbstractWe propose a linear general interdependence model of the world economy, and use United Nations Statistics Division data to estimate its parameters. This allows us to assess the propagation through the channel of international trade of an exogenous shock to one country's autonomous expenditures, thereby constructing a "vulnerability ranking" for the countries in the sample to an exogenous shock to any of them. The response of the system to a negative shock to the United States autonomous outlays is carried out as an example. Though subject to multiple caveats, these comparative statics results might be useful for policy analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its journal Económica.
Volume (Year): LIV (2008)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January-December)
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Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/economica/ing/
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World trade multiplier; Linear general interdependence models; Input-Output analysis; Decoupling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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