Comparative Analysis Regarding the Accuracy of State Budget Revenues Forecasts in Romania
AbstractThe objective of this research is related to the comparison between the government planning for the revenues and our own forecasts based on an econometric model. An auto-adaptive model was constructed for the revenues, taking into account the previous expectations regarding the government revenues. The U1 Theil's statistic was used to make the comparison between the two forecasts in terms of accuracy. The comparison of each type of prediction with the naive forecasts based on random walk was made using U2 Theil's statistic. The proposed auto- adaptive model could also be used by the government as a possible strategy to improve the government revenues accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest in its journal Knowledge Horizons - Economics.
Volume (Year): 5 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
State budget; forecasts; predictions; accuracy; government revenues; auto-adaptive model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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