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Making Low Probabilities Useful

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Author Info
 Kunreuther, Howard
Novemsky, Nathan
Kahneman, Daniel

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Abstract

This paper explores how people process information on low probability-high consequence negative events and what it will take to get individuals to be sensitive to the likelihood of these types of accidents or disasters. In a set of experiments, information is presented to individuals on the likelihood of serious accidents from a chemical facility. Comparisons are made with other risks, such as fatalities from automobile accidents, to see whether laypersons can determine the relative safety of different plants. We conclude that fairly rich context information must be available for people to be able to judge differences between low probabilities. In particular, it appears that one needs to present comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale to evoke people's own feelings of risk. The concept of evaluability recently introduced by Hsee and his colleagues provides a useful explanation of these findings. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 23 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 103-20
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:103-20

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  1. Howard Kunreuther, 2006. "Reflections on U.S. Disaster Insurance Policy for the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 12449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Howard Kunreuther & Mark Pauly, 2006. "Rules rather than discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 101-116, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Howard Kunreuther & Mark Pauly, 2006. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina," NBER Working Papers 12503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Howard Kunreuther & Mark Pauly, 2004. "Neglecting Disaster: Why Don't People Insure Against Large Losses?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 5-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Risk Management – Managing Risks, not Calculating Them," Risk and Insurance 0409001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Return-of-Premium Endorsements for Living-Benefits Insurance Policies: Rational or Irrational?," MPRA Paper 11103, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Howard Kunreuther, 2001. "Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent, 2009. "Probability weighting and the ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ of outcomes: An experimental study over losses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Susan Laury & Melayne McInnes & J. Swarthout, 2009. "Insurance decisions for low-probability losses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 17-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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