The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing
AbstractRecent evidence suggests that all asset returns are predictable to some extent with excess returns on real estate relatively easier to forecast. This raises the issue of whether we can successfully exploit this level of predictability using various market timing strategies to realize superior performance over a buy-and-hold strategy. We find that the level of predictability associated with real estate leads to moderate success in market timing, although this is not necessarily the case for the other asset classes examined in general. Besides this, real estate stocks typically have higher trading profits and higher mean risk-adjusted excess returns when compared to small stocks as well as large stocks and bonds even though most real estate stocks are small stocks. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.
Volume (Year): 8 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945
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- Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010.
"Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
- Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, . "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-27, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Ping Cheng & Stephen E. Roulac, 2007. "REIT Characteristics and Predictability," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(2), pages 23-41.
- Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
- Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.
- Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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