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Macroeconomic variables and the sovereign risk premia in EMU, non-EMU EU, and developed countries

Author

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  • Arkady Gevorkyan
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

This project studies and models key macroeconomic variables and their impact on sovereign risk premia across select European economies and developed countries. The sample is divided into three groups of countries: those in the European Monetary Union (EMU); the standalone economies outside the EMU but members of the broader European Union (EU); and other developed economies. The main subject of examination across all three groups is the impact of macroeconomic variables on sovereign borrowing costs. EU countries have experienced high financial stress and a rapid rise in the credit default swaps (CDS) spreads during the EMU debt crisis. A nonlinear vector smooth transition autoregressive model is applied to investigate such a regime change in the finance-output link using sovereign CDS and industrial production index. The paper finds that regime-switching takes place rather suddenly in most EMU countries. The study concludes that due to the potential spillover effects in the EU as a whole, the individual country macroeconomic indicators were less reflected in the financial stress and spillover and contagion effects became dominant. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Arkady Gevorkyan & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic variables and the sovereign risk premia in EMU, non-EMU EU, and developed countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-35, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:43:y:2016:i:1:p:1-35
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-015-9286-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "Spillovers from one country’s sovereign debt to CDS (credit default swap) spreads of others during the European crisis: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 277-296, July.
    2. Ferraresi Tommaso & Roventini Andrea & Semmler Willi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 599-625, August.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Svetlana G. Vokina & Yulia S. Zima & Nikolai G. Sinyavsky & Vadim Meshkov & Aleksandra V. Sultanova, 2016. "Unification of Economic Systems in the Global Economy: Barriers and Preconditions," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(4), December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt crisis; Vector STAR; GARCH; Regime-switching; Euro area; Financial stress; E44; F34; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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