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Application Of The Delphi Method To The Forecasting Of Long-Term Trends In Road Freight, Logistics And Related Co2 Emissions

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  • Maya Piecyk
  • Alan McKinnon

Abstract

A Delphi survey is a popular forecasting technique that can be applied to a wide range of research problems and disciplines. It is particularly useful in mid- and long-term forecasting. This paper reviews applications of the method to the field of freight transport and logistics and assesses the usefulness of Delphi-derived predictions of long-term freight and associated environmental trends. It presents, as a case study, the experience of a large two-round Delphi survey undertaken in the UK to elicit projections of long-term trends in a number of road freight and logistics variables. These projections were then used to model UK road freight-related CO2 emissions up to 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Maya Piecyk & Alan McKinnon, 2013. "Application Of The Delphi Method To The Forecasting Of Long-Term Trends In Road Freight, Logistics And Related Co2 Emissions," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 40(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:jte:journl:2013:2:40:5
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