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How Much Trouble Is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA

Author

Listed:
  • Allan Maymin

    (AllianceBernstein)

  • Philip Maymin

    (NYU-Polytechnic Institute)

  • Eugene Shen

    (AllianceBernstein)

Abstract

We analyze a large and comprehensive play-by-play dataset of professional games in the National Basketball Association using tools from financial economics to explore the optimality of strategically idling resources in the face of uncertain future demand. We find that starters ought to be idled by the coach on a “Q+1” basis, meaning that a starter has one more foul than the current quarter, when the future option value is high or the value of the replacement player is high. We use a novel win-probability approach that can be easily extended to other applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Maymin & Philip Maymin & Eugene Shen, 2012. "How Much Trouble Is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 7(4), pages 324-339, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:7:y:2012:i:4:p:324-339
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    strategic idling; foul trouble; win probability; NBA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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