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Using Attitude Data to Forecast Housing Activity

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    Abstract

    Several national surveys generate monthly indicators of housing market activity that are released weeks before the "hard" housing statistics (starts, new home sales, existing home sales) for that month. This paper examines whether these surveys of consumers, lenders, and builders can help predict what the current month's housing statistics will be. The conclusion is that these surveys, with the exception of homebuilders' attitudes, add little predictive power to that available from the housing series' own histories and from mortgage interest rates.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol09n04/v09p445.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 445-454

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:445-454

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    Cited by:
    1. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.

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