Small-Area Population Estimation in Absorption Analysis
AbstractIn spite of a recognized need for market analysis in real estate appraisal, little attention has been given to the development of a small-area population forecasting model. This paper presents a systematic and localized approach for forecasting population as an integral part of a real estate absorption analysis. The model includes capacity constraints developed from a tract-specific environmental inventory. Historical growth patterns are adjusted to reflect the potential for continued development within a designated submarket. Future demand is calculated from population growth that considers both historical levels of activity and potential for development. The combined approach provides a defensible basis for forecasting absorption.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.
Volume (Year): 6 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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