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The Housing Bubble: How Much Blame Does the Fed Really Deserve?

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  • William Miles

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    (Wichita State University)

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    Abstract

    Two recent empirical papers have blamed the Fed for the latest boom and bust in housing. Neither study includes long-term interest rates, which are more affected by global factors than the federal funds rate (FFR). In this paper, I include both the mortgage rate and the FFR as determinants of housing variables. The results indicate the long-term rate has independent and sometimes greater predictive power for housing than the FFR, especially in recent years. Finally, I demonstrate that the mortgage rate does not simply proxy for monetary policy—the impact of the FFR on long-term rates has also fallen over time.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/new_current/vol36n01/02.41_58.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 41-58

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:36:n:1:2014:p:41-58

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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