Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries


Author Info

  • Ralf Fendel
  • Eliza M. Lis
  • Jan‐Christoph Rülke
Registered author(s):


    This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations-augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 268-287

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:268-287

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page:

    Related research

    Keywords: Phillips curve ; forecasting ; panel data model ;


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Laurence M. Ball & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 14/24, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2012. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations," Research Discussion Papers 37/2012, Bank of Finland.
    3. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
    4. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters in Asian–Pacific countries believe in the monetary neutrality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 178-181.


    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:268-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.