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A Ground-Level Ozone Forecasting Model for Santiago, Chile

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  • Jorquera, Hector
  • Palma, Wilfredo
  • Tapia, Jose

Abstract

A physically based model for ground-level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the linear transfer function/finite impulse response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the simultaneous transfer function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations--for low and high ozone impacts--with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two- and three-days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorquera, Hector & Palma, Wilfredo & Tapia, Jose, 2002. "A Ground-Level Ozone Forecasting Model for Santiago, Chile," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 451-472, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:6:p:451-72
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