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Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Countries

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  • Shu-Ching Huang

    (Department of International Trade, Jun Shan University, Taiwan)

Abstract

The natural rate of unemployment is the equilibrium unemployment rate. If the actual unemployment rate does not fluctuate around some "natural" rate, it is implied that the unemployment rate may follow a non-stationary process. Existing studies using the conventional ADF unit-root test generally fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in the unemployment rate. These findings have been interpreted as providing support for the hysteresis hypothesis. In this paper, we analyze a panel of unemployment rate series of OECD countries by employing a more powerful test which exploits the cross-section variations in the constituent series. An important issue that we consider concerns the appropriate critical values for the panel data unit-root test in the presence of serial correlation and contemporaneous correlation. The critical values are computed from bootstrapping simulations. We support the hysteresis hypothesis of the unemployment rate series of OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu-Ching Huang, 2011. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 135-158, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:7:y:2011:i:1:p:135-158
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis hypothesis; panel data unit-root test; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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