The role of agriculture for economic development and gender in iraq: a computable general equilibrium model approach

This paper analyzes the extent to which productivity-driven growth in agricultural subsectors might contribute to accelerating economywide growth, raising household incomes, and affecting household income distribution. The findings show that raising agricultural productivity according to the Iraqi National Development Plan could more than double the average agricultural growth rates and add an average of 0.7 percent each year to economywide GDP in the period 2013–2017. As a consequence, the economy would not only diversify into agriculture, but agricultural growth would also lift growth in the food processing and service sectors. Household incomes could rise by an additional 3.3 percent on average during the simulation period, compared with a situation in which the yield targets are not achieved. This rise in household incomes would benefit the poorest households and female-headed urban households the most. The following policy priorities to ensure that such positive outcomes materialize: First, achieving the yield targets for wheat and for fruits and vegetables will provide the most growth and income enhancement. Therefore, increasing agricultural productivity in these sectors should be a priority. To achieve sustainable yield improvements would involve improved agricultural technology and management, including improved soil watering and nutrient management practices, new agricultural technology for harvesting and postharvest processing, and improved seed varieties. They also include improved water harvesting, greater irrigation efficiency, and expanded implementation of modern irrigation projects—with particular emphasis on modern drip and spray irrigation systems that rely on solar power. These steps would be part of an overall effort to optimally exploit water resources and address issues of water. Second, the success of efforts to rapidly accelerate agricultural growth will critically depend on whether or not additional agricultural produce can be marketed efficiently domestically and compete with imports. The results of this study show that this will be particularly important for fruits and vegetables. To support farmers and traders in this process, improving infrastructure and market information systems will be important for market access and to provide actors along the supply chain with useful information about prices and marketing opportunities. Another type of policy that would support a rapid increase in agricultural production is trade facilitation. This category includes measures to reduce the transaction costs related to international trade, including excessive documentation requirements, authorizations from multiple agencies, unclear or subjective criteria for the application of duties, and delays and uncertainties related to customs clearance.