IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/isp/journl/v12y2018i1p165-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting The Price Of Agriculture Products Using The Decomposition Of Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś

Abstract

Becoming familiar with the price level of particular kind of decisions such as: strategic, tactical, operational should be supported by the results of forecasts with an appropriate time horizon. A short-time method of forecasting agriculture products prices employing a time series decomposition is presented in this study. This method based on the assessment of the mean level of prices resultant from long-period trends and cyclical changes, corrected by seasonal fluctuation and eliminating irregular changes during calculation. The study materials consist of monthly time series of broiler chicken prices for the years 2007-2017. A sample forecast was performed for broiler chicken prices for the time period from one to six month ahead. The level of ex-post relative (MPE) and absolute (MAPE) errors were calculated for each forecast. The presented method can be particularly useful for forecasting prices of agricultural products characterized by seasonal fluctuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś, 2018. "Forecasting The Price Of Agriculture Products Using The Decomposition Of Time Series," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 12(1), pages 165-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:isp:journl:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:165-171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.scientific-publications.net/get/1000031/1536784079876881.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price; time series; seasonal fluctuation; broiler chicken;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isp:journl:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:165-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Svetoslav Ivanov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.scientific-publications.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.