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A Technique for Estimating V/STOL Market Shares

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  • Alexis N. Sommers

    (Vitro Laboratories, Silver Spring, Maryland)

Abstract

A theory and technique is presented for estimating the business travel market shares of future V/STOL aircraft as functions of the nondemographic mode choice factors of time, cost, safety, comfort, convenience, and weather reliability. A linear mathematical model is described. Inputs to the model are derived directly from questionnaire surveys incorporating semantic differential and multiple choice questions. The technique is demonstrated on a city-pair 112 miles apart where business travel currently favors automobiles. Two V/STOL aircraft types competing with conventional modes in a hypothetical 1985 environment are predicted to attract 48 per cent of the business travel in this city-pair market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis N. Sommers, 1969. "A Technique for Estimating V/STOL Market Shares," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:3:y:1969:i:1:p:1-7
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.3.1.1
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