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A Model of the Effect of Information Diffusion on Travel

Author

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  • Steven R. Lerman

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts)

  • Charles F. Manski

    (Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel, and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts)

Abstract

Existing models of travel demand do not reflect the dynamics of the process by which demand adjusts to changes in the travel environment. One of the main causes of these dynamics is the fact that the entire population is not instantaneously aware of the changes in the transportation system. Rather, some individuals may learn about changes only after receiving a word-of-mouth or media report. This paper explores how this information diffusion process influences travel demand. A general model requiring only data on aggregate demand over time is proposed. This model is consistent with plausible behavior at the level of the individual traveler. The model is appropriate for the case of a once-and-for-all structural change in the transportation system. The econometric problems of estimating the parameters of the model are considered, and some interesting forms for the information diffusion process are derived. An illustrative application to an off-peak free fare experiment in Salt Lake City is described.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven R. Lerman & Charles F. Manski, 1982. "A Model of the Effect of Information Diffusion on Travel," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 171-191, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:16:y:1982:i:2:p:171-191
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.16.2.171
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