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A Decision-Process Perspective on Risk and Policy Analysis

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Author Info

  • Howard Kunreuther

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Joanne Linnerooth

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria)

  • James W. Vaupel

    (Institute of Policy Sciences and Public Affairs, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706)

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    Abstract

    Risk analysis and policy analysis can play important roles in facilitating the siting of potentially hazardous facilities if one recognizes the descriptive features of the decision process. The case of siting a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in California illustrates the multi-party sequential nature of the process and the role that widely differing risk estimates play in fueling conflicts between stakeholders. Risk analysis does have a useful function in clarifying the nature of the potential losses, particularly if rules of evidence are instituted for evaluating different studies. Policy analysis can facilitate the negotiation process by the use of compensation to redistribute gains and losses between the different parties. Examples from case studies are presented to illustrate the challenges for risk analysis and policy analysis in the siting process.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.4.475
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 30 (1984)
    Issue (Month): 4 (April)
    Pages: 475-485

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:30:y:1984:i:4:p:475-485

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    Related research

    Keywords: risk analysis; policy analysis; decision process; low probability event;

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