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A Diverting Structure's Effects on a River Flow Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Darryl J. Downing

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy)

  • David J. Pack

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy)

  • Gary W. Westley

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, operated by Union Carbide Corporation under contract W-7405-eng-26 with the U.S. Department of Energy)

Abstract

A step-by-step summary of an empirical time series analysis of the effects of a newly constructed dam on river flow rate is given. A model of river flow rate for the 522 weeks of data is built through the transfer function/intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins/Box-Tiao. Analysis indicates a rainfall variable has a significant influence on the pre-dam flow rate but not on the post-dam flow rate. The model also reflects a differing relationship of rainfall to pre-dam flow rate depending on the season of the year. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of implied mean flow rates suggest that the final model provides a sound basis for some public policy decisions that might focus on the dam.

Suggested Citation

  • Darryl J. Downing & David J. Pack & Gary W. Westley, 1983. "A Diverting Structure's Effects on a River Flow Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 225-236, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:2:p:225-236
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.29.2.225
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